Hello. Welcome to FBJ. At some point I’ll tell you what that means.
I had a blog on blogger for a number of years. But SubStack is awesome and is my new home.
I’ve spent the past almost 2 years studying and researching Covid. And personally, am a Covid survivor (I’ll probably write about that also). Why do you care? I think I have some ideas, experiences and suggestions that might be very helpful.
First, of course, Covid is no joke, and even “mild” Covid has some serious risks for people with pre-existing conditions and “co-morbidities”. But there is good news and bad news.
First tha bad news (cause that’s how I roll). The Omicron infectiveness is something like R0 of 10. That means 1 infected person infects 10 others on average. We’re getting close to 400,000-500,000 cases a day (not all cases are identified due to limited testing; something like 1/3 of cases are not tested). That’s close to measles-level infectivity. It’s an aerosol, which means it lingers in the air for hours, like smoke. Cloth masks are useless, throw them away. Surgical masks close to useless (I have seen numbers like 11% effective), and N95’s are the best protection you can get (ever seen a doctor, nurse or politician with less?).
Other bad news. Our vaccines are weak at best. Anything over 6 months offers essentially no protection from infection (maybe 10-20% at best). A booster, which takes 2-4 weeks to kick in, only offers 8-10 weeks of increased protection from infection (from recent studies in UK and Israel). They offer better protection from serious illness, hospitalization and death, but still it’s not anywhere near 100% protection. And the older and weaker you are, the les protection you have (which is kind of perverse, because these vaccines were supposed to help our most at risk populations).
The good news. Young, healthy people are at almost zero risk. The number of Omicron deaths in the US can be counted on one or two hands. The cases and case growth can seem frightening, but it hasn’t translated into a similar level of hospitalization or death.
However, even a small percentage of a huge number can cause serious problems. Let’s say .1-.2% death rate (similar to flu). With a highly infective respiratory virus, and hundrdes of thousands of daily infections, hospitals can become overwhelmed. If you can’t get resources (meds, oxygen, treatment) then the death rate will increase. Hospital staff will also become overwhelmed. In major cities, at least for a while, many basic services will be affected (for example, NYC reduced subway frequency, the same for Amtrack, airlines also can’t get flight crews). Will we get past the peak before society starts to crumble? If that peak isn’t a lengthy plateau.
What other good news? Omicron infects quickly, doesn’t seem to harm the lungs (it’s upper respiratory tract vs. deep in the lungs), and you recover quickly.
We have knowledge about many meds that are effective now (I will write more on this later). Not enough, or as many as we should, but much more than in 2020. Treatments now are much more effective than in 2020.
Omicron still shows up in the tests we use (PCR and antigen). Although we have blown it in terms of testing resources, as we have all along.
N95 masks are very effective protection if worn properly.
So, in summary, there is good news and bad news. Omicron may be a path out of Covid if many people get it, have few symptoms (something like 30-40% of cases are asymptomatic), recover quickly and develop immunity. If hospitals are overwhelmed, we can’t treat everyone, and the peak is a lengthy plateau, then things will get bad for a month or two. And by bad I mean no hospital treatment, shortages, and all kinds of social systems breaking down, for at least a while.
My advice is to plan as if there won’t be lot of help or resources for a while. You may need to treat yourself or loved ones. Have N95’s, antigen tests, meds and supplements at home. Try to avoid going out as much as possible right now, and when you do, take precautions (more on this in later posts also).
Ok. That’s enough to start. Be well, and stay safe …
Well said